Food security to worsen in 2016
31/12/2015 03:04:00Stories by Manqoba Makhubu
REDUCED crop and livestock production resultant from the prevailing worst El Nino weather phenomenon is set to extremely impact on food security in 2016.
The season for planting maize has already experienced delays, while the crops sown stand to be negatively affected by inadequate rains and higher temperatures.
Economist and University of Swaziland (UNISWA) lecturer Christopher Fakudze in his analysis said he is expecting the hunger situation to worsen in 2016 due to short supply and increased demand.
“The hunger situation will worsen as food prices are bound to escalate in response to reduced production, unsatisfied demand for food commodities yet supply shall be meagre,” he said.
The reduced agricultural output would follow on last year’s disappointing season, which has already contributed to maize price increase.
Production
In July 2015 Central Bank Governor Majozi Sithole said South Africa, the largest producer of maize from which Swaziland sourced its maize products recorded 33 percent decrease in maize production during the 2014/2015 harvesting season.
As a result he said maize prizes were expected to increase by at least more than 33 percent. According to South African grain farmers association (Grain SA), 42 percent of maize in the entire Southern African Development Community (SADC) region comes from South Africa and about 14 SADC member states import 69 percent of their maize from South Africa.
The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has already warned that in March the current El Nino would be the strongest episode in 18 years and is expected to peak at the start of 2016, before the usual harvest time for farmers in Southern Africa.
“Weather forecasts indicate a higher probability of a continuation of below-normal rains between December and March across most countries, “said FAO global information early warning system (GEIWS).
FAO noted that South Africa has already declared drought status for five provinces, its main cereal producing regions, while Lesotho has issued a drought mitigation plan and Swaziland has implemented water restrictions as reservoir levels have become low.
Fakudze said slowdown or a possible halt across various sectors, especially those dependent in agriculture will be eminent.
Unfortunately, this happens at a time when the currency, Rand (pegged one-on-one with Lilangeni) was becoming weaker.
Worsening the situation, Fakudze said, is that government does not have safety nets and is also vulnerable to economic shacks exacerbated by falling SACU receipts.
...2016 the most difficult year
UNIVERSITY of Swaziland lecturer and economist Christopher Fakudze say it is beyond any doubt that 2016 will be the most difficult time for the Swazi economy.
“All in all Swaziland’s economy for 2016 is gloomy, perhaps the most difficult this time around, but we can do better if we can switch our focus to stimulating our strategic economic growth points,” he said.
Swaziland has already experienced maize price increase. In November 2015, the National Maize Corporation (NMC) introduced a four percent maize prize increase which was effective from November 9, 2015.
Increased
Currently, 25 kilograms (kg) of maize which which previously cost around E88 from NMC increased to E92 and 72 kg bagged maize from E240 to E251.
In South Africa, Malawi and Mozambique FAO obsesrved that wholesale maize prices drastically increased.
“Wholesale maize prices are up 50 percent from a year earlier in South Africa, while retail maize prices have doubled in Malawi and Mozambique,” said FAO.
As a consequence the organisation projected that the number of vulnerable people in Southern Africa would almost double from about 3.2 million in 2014 to about 6.3 million in 2015.
In Swaziland, Deputy Prime Minister Paul Dlamini said due to the prevailing drought about 200 000 people will have no food by March 2016.
In the 1970s Swaziland was a net exporter of food, but since the early 1990s the country has been largely dependent on donor assistance.
In 2010 at least one in ten Swazis depended on food aid but statistics show that about five in ten Swazis depend on food aid.
